Market is ultra bullish - Week in review (July 8 - July 12)
The market just keeps rocketing up.
I have been taking random short positions, feeling there should be a pullback sometime, but it just keeps going up.
Wondering if I should just go all in on the bull trend, instead of trying to outsmart the market.
Here are the trades from last week:
Opened #
| Ticker | Action | Type | Date | Expiry | Sell Strike | Buy Strike | Premium | Qty | Fee | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | open | BPS | 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-19 | 546 | 536 | 0.51 | 3 | 5.4 | 147.6 |
| MSFT | open | BPS | 2024-07-09 | 2024-10-18 | 410 | 395 | 1.63 | 1 | 2.11 | 160.89 |
| SPY | open | BCS | 2024-07-09 | 2024-08-16 | 560 | 561 | 0.520000000000001 | 1 | 2.52 | 49.48 |
| BITO | open | Covered Call | 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-19 | 22 | - | 0.17 | 1 | 1.05 | 15.95 |
| IWM | open | BCS | 2024-07-10 | 2024-08-23 | 207 | 208 | 0.35 | 1 | 1.27 | 33.73 |
| SNOW | open | BCS | 2024-07-10 | 2024-08-16 | 155 | 160 | 0.71 | 2 | 1.4 | 140.6 |
| CSCO | open | Covered Call | 2024-07-11 | 2024-07-19 | 47.5 | - | 0.23 | 1 | 0.85 | 22.15 |
Weekly SPY and MSFT positions. These weekly trades are still my most profitable.
One mathematical short on SPY as well, via Option Alpha "trade ideas".
Couple covered calls on BITO and CSCO.
Bitcoin plummeted a bit the last couple weeks, so I got assigned 100 shares of BITO at 22.
CSCO has been downtrending, and I got assigned at $47.50 a while back.
I have a large negative cash balace right now, mainly because of these assignments. Trying to be patient and continue selling covered calls on them to at least cover my interest payments.
Closed / Expired: #
| Ticker | Action | Type | Date | Expiry | Sell Strike | Buy Strike | Premium | Qty | Fee | Net | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | open | BCS | 2024-06-17 | 2024-07-12 | 548 | 549 | 0.44 | 1 | 1.41 | 42.59 | -$42.82 |
| SPY | assigned/exercised | BCS | 2024-07-12 | 2024-07-12 | 549 | 548 | -1 | 1 | 0 | -100 | |
| SPY | open | BPS | 2024-06-17 | 2024-07-12 | 533 | 532 | 0.16 | 1 | 1.41 | 14.59 | |
| SPY | expired | BPS | 2024-07-12 | 2024-07-12 | 532 | 533 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| TXN | open | BPS | 2024-06-27 | 2024-08-16 | 180 | 175 | 0.96 | 2 | 1.12 | 190.88 | $99.49 |
| TXN | close | BPS | 2024-07-08 | 2024-08-16 | 175 | 180 | -0.45 | 2 | 1.39 | -91.39 | |
| SPY | open | BPS | 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-19 | 546 | 536 | 0.51 | 3 | 5.4 | 147.6 | $124.65 |
| SPY | close | BPS | 2024-07-12 | 2024-07-19 | 536 | 546 | -0.06 | 3 | 4.95 | -22.95 |
- Closed Net Profits/Loss: $181.32
Small profit this week. Closed weekly SPY trade early again for quick win.
SPY iron condor expired for small loss.
Notes and Lessons #
Beginnng to doubt the Option Alpha trade ideas strategy. Perhaps their calculation/algorithm is off.
I've lost 7 out of 9 trades so far with them so far.
Have like 10 more open positions that are not looking very good right now.
I'm mainly betting on 50% win/loss rate, so I'm quite below the expected result right now. It's supposed to be a "numbers game", so eventually it will balance out to the expected probability. Supposed to.
It's pretty hard to keep losing over and over and over, and still believe in the strategy. Will continue using the strategy for a while to see how it goes.